breed [ responder responders] breed [normal normals] turtles-own [age ] to setup clear-all if Scenario = "Normal Population" [setup-normal setup-patches] if Scenario = "9-11 Firefighters" [setup-responders setup-epicenter] assign-age do-plots end to assign-age ask turtles [set age ( random-normal 44.0 6.7 ) ] end to setup-patches ask patches [ set pcolor scale-color sky ( random 2500 + 45000) 0 100000 ] ask patches [if ( pycor < 9 ) [ set pcolor scale-color green (random 5000 + 40000) 0 100000 ]] end to setup-epicenter ask patches [ set pcolor scale-color gray ( random 2500 + 50000) 0 100000 ] ask patches [if ( pycor < 9 ) [ set pcolor scale-color black (random 5000 + 10000) 0 100000 ]] ask patches with [ ( pxcor < -2 and pxcor > -11 and pycor <= 14 ) or ( pxcor < 11 and pxcor > 2 and pycor <= 14 ) ] [set pcolor scale-color black (random 5000 + 30000) 0 100000] end to setup-normal create-normal 1000 ask normal [ setxy random-xcor random-ycor ] ask normal with [ ycor > 9.1] [set ycor ycor - 7.7 - random 9] ask normal with [ycor < -15] [set ycor ycor + 1] ask normal [set color yellow ] ask normal [set shape "person" ] ask normal [set size size * 1.7 ] end to setup-responders create-responder 1000 ask responder [ set shape "firefighter" ] ask responder [ set color yellow ] ask responder [ setxy random-xcor random-ycor ] ask responder with [ ycor > 9.1] [set ycor ycor - 7.7 - random 9] ask responder with [ycor < -15] [set ycor ycor + 1.3] ask responder [set size size * 2.5 ] end to go if ticks >= 360 [stop] move-turtles add-age if Scenario = "9-11 Firefighters" [diagnose-affected-responder] if Scenario = "Normal Population" [diagnose-normal] tick do-plots end to move-turtles ask turtles with [ycor >= -15 and ycor <= 9] [ right random 180 forward 0.2 ] ask turtles with [ycor < -15] [ set heading 45 forward 0.3 ] ask turtles with [ycor > 9] [ set heading 135 forward 0.3 ] end to add-age ask turtles [ set age age + ( 1 / 12 ) ] end to diagnose-normal ask normal with [age <= 39.9999 and color = yellow] [ if random-float 100 < ( 1.45 / ( 39.9999 * 12 ) ) [ set color red] ] ask normal with [age >= 40 and age <= 59.9999 and color = yellow ] [ if random-float 100 < ( 8.68 / ( 20 * 12) ) [set color red] ] ask normal with [ age >= 60 and age <= 69.9999 and color = yellow] [ if random-float 100 < ( 16.00 / ( 20 * 12) ) [set color red] ] ask normal with [ age >= 70 and color = yellow] [ if random-float 100 < ( 38.27 / (30 * 12) ) [set color red] ] end to diagnose-affected-responder ask responder with [age <= 39.9999 and color = yellow] [ ;;as time grows larger, percentage higher chances grow higher if random-float 100 < ( ( 1.45 * ( (1 + ( Percentage-Cancer-Rate-Changes-Every-Year / 100 ) ) ^ ( ticks / 12 ) ) ) / ( 39.99999 * 12 ) ) [ set color red] ] ask responder with [age >= 40 and age <= 59.9999 and color = yellow ] [ if random-float 100 < ((( 8.68 * ( (1 + ( Percentage-Cancer-Rate-Changes-Every-Year / 100 ) ) ^ ( ticks / 12 ) ) ) ) / ( 20 * 12) ) [set color red] ] ask responder with [ age >= 60 and age <= 69.9999 and color = yellow] [ if random-float 100 < ( (( 16.00 * ( (1 + ( Percentage-Cancer-Rate-Changes-Every-Year / 100 ) ) ^ ( ticks / 12 ) ) ) ) / ( 20 * 12) ) [set color red] ] ask responder with [ age >= 70 and color = yellow] [ if random-float 100 < ((( 38.27 * ( (1 + ( Percentage-Cancer-Rate-Changes-Every-Year / 100 ) ) ^ ( ticks / 12 ) ) ) ) / (30 * 12) ) [set color red] ] end to do-plots set-current-plot "Population with Cancer" set-current-plot-pen "Cancer" plot count turtles with [color = red] set-current-plot "Percentage sick" set-current-plot-pen "Cancer" plot (count turtles with [color = red] * 100 ) / ( count turtles ) set-current-plot "Age" set-current-plot-pen "age" histogram [age] of turtles end @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 374 10 813 470 16 16 13.0 1 10 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -16 16 -16 16 1 1 1 ticks BUTTON 14 17 78 50 Setup setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL BUTTON 84 17 147 50 Go go T 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL PLOT -1 139 262 289 Population with Cancer Time People 0.0 360.0 0.0 100.0 true true PENS "Cancer" 1.0 0 -2674135 true PLOT -3 290 197 440 Percentage sick Time Sickness 0.0 360.0 0.0 5.0 true false PENS "Cancer" 1.0 0 -2674135 true CHOOSER 178 16 362 61 Scenario Scenario "Normal Population" "9-11 Firefighters" 0 SLIDER -2 102 363 135 Percentage-Cancer-Rate-Changes-Every-Year Percentage-Cancer-Rate-Changes-Every-Year 0 2 0.68 0.01 1 Percent HORIZONTAL PLOT 890 41 1218 287 Age Age Number of People 20.0 95.0 0.0 80.0 true false PENS "age" 1.0 1 -16777216 true TEXTBOX 72 83 222 101 Variable for Firefighters 13 0.0 1 @#$#@#$#@ WHAT IS IT? ----------- During the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, clouds of dust and other particles rained upon southern Manhattan, coating everything in sight. Both those inside the building and pedestrians, and emergency responders inhaled and interacted with these particles which contained many toxic substances. In the years following 9/11, those caught in this dust have developed diseases such as cancer and lung disease, in numbers much higher than the average rate. We hope to model the different cancer rates in the affected firefighters population and normal populations and predict increases in the rate of sickness in the future. HOW IT WORKS ------------ The agents live in a model where a tick is equal to a month, and the probability of their having an illness is found every month. Those who have cancer turn red. HOW TO USE IT ------------- Use the drop down box to choose which scenario you wish to choose. Press Setup and then press Go. THINGS TO NOTICE ---------------- The percentages of the people with cancer in the normal population and the affected firefighters are different, especially as the rate the cancer rates change each year is increased. THINGS TO TRY ------------- This section could give some ideas of things for the user to try to do (move sliders, switches, etc.) with the model. EXTENDING THE MODEL ------------------- Add different types of disease and disorders that seem to have different effects on firefighters and normal population. NETLOGO FEATURES ---------------- This section could point out any especially interesting or unusual features of NetLogo that the model makes use of, particularly in the Procedures tab. It might also point out places where workarounds were needed because of missing features. RELATED MODELS -------------- This section could give the names of models in the NetLogo Models Library or elsewhere which are of related interest. CREDITS AND REFERENCES ---------------------- This section could contain a reference to the model's URL on the web if it has one, as well as any other necessary credits or references. @#$#@#$#@ default true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 5 40 250 150 205 260 250 airplane true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 135 15 120 60 120 105 15 165 15 195 120 180 135 240 105 270 120 285 150 270 180 285 210 270 165 240 180 180 285 195 285 165 180 105 180 60 165 15 arrow true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 0 0 150 105 150 105 293 195 293 195 150 300 150 box false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 285 285 225 285 75 150 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 135 15 75 150 15 285 75 Polygon -7500403 true true 15 75 15 225 150 285 150 135 Line -16777216 false 150 285 150 135 Line -16777216 false 150 135 15 75 Line -16777216 false 150 135 285 75 bug true 0 Circle -7500403 true true 96 182 108 Circle -7500403 true true 110 127 80 Circle -7500403 true true 110 75 80 Line -7500403 true 150 100 80 30 Line -7500403 true 150 100 220 30 butterfly true 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 165 209 199 225 225 225 255 195 270 165 255 150 240 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 165 89 198 75 225 75 255 105 270 135 255 150 240 Polygon -7500403 true true 139 148 100 105 55 90 25 90 10 105 10 135 25 180 40 195 85 194 139 163 Polygon -7500403 true true 162 150 200 105 245 90 275 90 290 105 290 135 275 180 260 195 215 195 162 165 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 255 135 225 120 150 135 120 150 105 165 120 180 150 165 225 Circle -16777216 true false 135 90 30 Line -16777216 false 150 105 195 60 Line -16777216 false 150 105 105 60 car false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 300 180 279 164 261 144 240 135 226 132 213 106 203 84 185 63 159 50 135 50 75 60 0 150 0 165 0 225 300 225 300 180 Circle -16777216 true false 180 180 90 Circle -16777216 true false 30 180 90 Polygon -16777216 true false 162 80 132 78 134 135 209 135 194 105 189 96 180 89 Circle -7500403 true true 47 195 58 Circle -7500403 true true 195 195 58 circle false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 circle 2 false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 cow false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 200 193 197 249 179 249 177 196 166 187 140 189 93 191 78 179 72 211 49 209 48 181 37 149 25 120 25 89 45 72 103 84 179 75 198 76 252 64 272 81 293 103 285 121 255 121 242 118 224 167 Polygon -7500403 true true 73 210 86 251 62 249 48 208 Polygon -7500403 true true 25 114 16 195 9 204 23 213 25 200 39 123 cylinder false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 dot false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 90 90 120 face happy false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 8 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 255 90 239 62 213 47 191 67 179 90 203 109 218 150 225 192 218 210 203 227 181 251 194 236 217 212 240 face neutral false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 7 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Rectangle -16777216 true false 60 195 240 225 face sad false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 8 8 285 Circle -16777216 true false 60 75 60 Circle -16777216 true false 180 75 60 Polygon -16777216 true false 150 168 90 184 62 210 47 232 67 244 90 220 109 205 150 198 192 205 210 220 227 242 251 229 236 206 212 183 firefighter false 4 Polygon -1184463 true true 178 193 118 193 104 284 103 298 133 298 148 223 163 298 193 298 194 284 Rectangle -1184463 true true 123 76 176 92 Circle -1184463 true true 110 5 80 Line -1184463 true 98 33 196 29 Polygon -1184463 true true 104 33 106 34 115 12 144 -1 176 6 188 29 Polygon -7500403 true false 154 8 141 8 141 26 161 23 Polygon -1184463 true true 110 89 147 165 182 89 Polygon -1184463 true true 118 91 103 91 58 196 88 211 114 159 118 196 178 196 182 159 208 211 238 196 193 91 178 91 163 106 148 166 133 106 118 91 Polygon -7500403 true false 115 169 116 182 179 182 181 169 Polygon -16777216 true false 122 168 126 190 139 189 143 168 120 168 Circle -1 true false 131 49 38 Line -16777216 false 133 64 110 50 Line -16777216 false 165 64 191 49 Polygon -16777216 true false 105 265 140 266 137 302 129 302 121 303 116 303 104 303 92 297 93 288 Polygon -16777216 true false 191 263 156 266 158 302 166 302 174 303 179 303 191 303 203 297 202 288 fish false 0 Polygon -1 true false 44 131 21 87 15 86 0 120 15 150 0 180 13 214 20 212 45 166 Polygon -1 true false 135 195 119 235 95 218 76 210 46 204 60 165 Polygon -1 true false 75 45 83 77 71 103 86 114 166 78 135 60 Polygon -7500403 true true 30 136 151 77 226 81 280 119 292 146 292 160 287 170 270 195 195 210 151 212 30 166 Circle -16777216 true false 215 106 30 flag false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 60 15 75 300 Polygon -7500403 true true 90 150 270 90 90 30 Line -7500403 true 75 135 90 135 Line -7500403 true 75 45 90 45 flower false 0 Polygon -10899396 true false 135 120 165 165 180 210 180 240 150 300 165 300 195 240 195 195 165 135 Circle -7500403 true true 85 132 38 Circle -7500403 true true 130 147 38 Circle -7500403 true true 192 85 38 Circle -7500403 true true 85 40 38 Circle -7500403 true true 177 40 38 Circle -7500403 true true 177 132 38 Circle -7500403 true true 70 85 38 Circle -7500403 true true 130 25 38 Circle -7500403 true true 96 51 108 Circle -16777216 true false 113 68 74 Polygon -10899396 true false 189 233 219 188 249 173 279 188 234 218 Polygon -10899396 true false 180 255 150 210 105 210 75 240 135 240 house false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 45 120 255 285 Rectangle -16777216 true false 120 210 180 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 15 120 150 15 285 120 Line -16777216 false 30 120 270 120 leaf false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 210 135 195 120 210 60 210 30 195 60 180 60 165 15 135 30 120 15 105 40 104 45 90 60 90 90 105 105 120 120 120 105 60 120 60 135 30 150 15 165 30 180 60 195 60 180 120 195 120 210 105 240 90 255 90 263 104 285 105 270 120 285 135 240 165 240 180 270 195 240 210 180 210 165 195 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 195 135 240 120 255 105 255 105 285 135 285 165 240 165 195 line true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 0 150 300 line half true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 0 150 150 lungs person false 4 Circle -1184463 true true 110 5 80 Polygon -1184463 true true 105 90 120 195 90 285 105 300 135 300 150 225 165 300 195 300 210 285 180 195 195 90 Rectangle -1184463 true true 127 79 172 94 Polygon -1184463 true true 195 90 240 150 225 180 165 105 Polygon -1184463 true true 105 90 60 150 75 180 135 105 Rectangle -16777216 true false 140 90 160 104 Polygon -16777216 true false 137 103 141 102 120 115 120 147 136 171 148 169 145 102 Polygon -16777216 true false 155 101 155 166 165 168 178 148 174 112 157 101 pentagon false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 15 15 120 60 285 240 285 285 120 person false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 110 5 80 Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 120 195 90 285 105 300 135 300 150 225 165 300 195 300 210 285 180 195 195 90 Rectangle -7500403 true true 127 79 172 94 Polygon -7500403 true true 195 90 240 150 225 180 165 105 Polygon -7500403 true true 105 90 60 150 75 180 135 105 person police false 0 Polygon -1 true false 124 91 150 165 178 91 Polygon -13345367 true false 134 91 149 106 134 181 149 196 164 181 149 106 164 91 Polygon -13345367 true false 180 195 120 195 90 285 105 300 135 300 150 225 165 300 195 300 210 285 Polygon -13345367 true false 120 90 105 90 60 195 90 210 116 158 120 195 180 195 184 158 210 210 240 195 195 90 180 90 165 105 150 165 135 105 120 90 Rectangle -7500403 true true 123 76 176 92 Circle -7500403 true true 110 5 80 Polygon -13345367 true false 150 26 110 41 97 29 137 -1 158 6 185 0 201 6 196 23 204 34 180 33 Line -13345367 false 121 90 194 90 Line -16777216 false 148 143 150 196 Rectangle -16777216 true false 116 186 182 198 Rectangle -16777216 true false 109 183 124 227 Rectangle -16777216 true false 176 183 195 205 Circle -1 true false 152 143 9 Circle -1 true false 152 166 9 Polygon -1184463 true false 172 112 191 112 185 133 179 133 Polygon -1184463 true false 175 6 194 6 189 21 180 21 Line -1184463 false 149 24 197 24 Rectangle -16777216 true false 101 177 122 187 Rectangle -16777216 true false 179 164 183 186 plant false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 135 90 165 300 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 255 90 210 45 195 75 255 135 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 255 210 210 255 195 225 255 165 285 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 180 90 135 45 120 75 180 135 210 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 180 165 210 225 180 255 120 210 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 105 90 60 45 45 75 105 135 135 Polygon -7500403 true true 165 105 165 135 225 105 255 45 210 60 Polygon -7500403 true true 135 90 120 45 150 15 180 45 165 90 responder lungs false 15 Rectangle -1 true true 123 76 176 92 Polygon -1 true true 124 90 150 164 178 90 Polygon -13345367 true false 134 91 149 106 134 181 149 196 164 181 149 106 164 91 Polygon -13345367 true false 180 195 120 195 90 285 105 300 135 300 150 225 165 300 195 300 210 285 Polygon -13345367 true false 120 90 105 90 60 195 90 210 116 158 120 195 180 195 184 158 210 210 240 195 195 90 180 90 165 105 150 165 135 105 120 90 Circle -1 true true 110 5 80 Polygon -13345367 true false 150 26 110 41 97 29 137 -1 158 6 185 0 201 6 196 23 204 34 180 33 Line -13345367 false 121 90 194 90 Line -16777216 false 148 143 150 196 Rectangle -16777216 true false 116 186 182 198 Rectangle -16777216 true false 109 183 124 227 Rectangle -16777216 true false 176 183 195 205 Circle -1 true true 152 143 9 Circle -1 true true 152 166 9 Polygon -1184463 true false 172 112 191 112 185 133 179 133 Polygon -1184463 true false 175 6 194 6 189 21 180 21 Line -1184463 false 149 24 197 24 Rectangle -16777216 true false 101 177 122 187 Rectangle -16777216 true false 179 164 183 186 Polygon -16777216 true false 142 92 143 105 162 104 161 93 143 94 Polygon -2064490 false false 153 103 159 185 Polygon -2064490 false false 148 104 143 186 Polygon -2064490 false false 141 105 128 110 141 103 Polygon -2064490 false false 161 102 159 100 160 102 173 109 Polygon -2064490 true false 148 105 141 105 Polygon -16777216 true false 140 103 141 184 130 184 116 136 127 109 142 102 146 102 141 182 Polygon -16777216 true false 174 109 175 109 174 107 186 135 173 185 163 185 161 185 154 101 164 102 Rectangle -16777216 true false 148 105 148 107 Rectangle -16777216 true false 139 103 149 185 Polygon -16777216 true false 160 99 174 109 171 113 156 100 163 99 165 104 Rectangle -16777216 true false 155 104 165 184 sheep false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 151 225 180 285 Rectangle -7500403 true true 47 225 75 285 Rectangle -7500403 true true 15 75 210 225 Circle -7500403 true true 135 75 150 Circle -16777216 true false 165 76 116 square false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270 square 2 false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 30 30 270 270 Rectangle -16777216 true false 60 60 240 240 star false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 151 1 185 108 298 108 207 175 242 282 151 216 59 282 94 175 3 108 116 108 target false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 0 0 300 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 Circle -7500403 true true 60 60 180 Circle -16777216 true false 90 90 120 Circle -7500403 true true 120 120 60 tree false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 118 3 94 Rectangle -6459832 true false 120 195 180 300 Circle -7500403 true true 65 21 108 Circle -7500403 true true 116 41 127 Circle -7500403 true true 45 90 120 Circle -7500403 true true 104 74 152 triangle false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 30 15 255 285 255 triangle 2 false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 150 30 15 255 285 255 Polygon -16777216 true false 151 99 225 223 75 224 truck false 0 Rectangle -7500403 true true 4 45 195 187 Polygon -7500403 true true 296 193 296 150 259 134 244 104 208 104 207 194 Rectangle -1 true false 195 60 195 105 Polygon -16777216 true false 238 112 252 141 219 141 218 112 Circle -16777216 true false 234 174 42 Rectangle -7500403 true true 181 185 214 194 Circle -16777216 true false 144 174 42 Circle -16777216 true false 24 174 42 Circle -7500403 false true 24 174 42 Circle -7500403 false true 144 174 42 Circle -7500403 false true 234 174 42 turtle true 0 Polygon -10899396 true false 215 204 240 233 246 254 228 266 215 252 193 210 Polygon -10899396 true false 195 90 225 75 245 75 260 89 269 108 261 124 240 105 225 105 210 105 Polygon -10899396 true false 105 90 75 75 55 75 40 89 31 108 39 124 60 105 75 105 90 105 Polygon -10899396 true false 132 85 134 64 107 51 108 17 150 2 192 18 192 52 169 65 172 87 Polygon -10899396 true false 85 204 60 233 54 254 72 266 85 252 107 210 Polygon -7500403 true true 119 75 179 75 209 101 224 135 220 225 175 261 128 261 81 224 74 135 88 99 wheel false 0 Circle -7500403 true true 3 3 294 Circle -16777216 true false 30 30 240 Line -7500403 true 150 285 150 15 Line -7500403 true 15 150 285 150 Circle -7500403 true true 120 120 60 Line -7500403 true 216 40 79 269 Line -7500403 true 40 84 269 221 Line -7500403 true 40 216 269 79 Line -7500403 true 84 40 221 269 x false 0 Polygon -7500403 true true 270 75 225 30 30 225 75 270 Polygon -7500403 true true 30 75 75 30 270 225 225 270 @#$#@#$#@ NetLogo 4.1.3 @#$#@#$#@ @#$#@#$#@ @#$#@#$#@ @#$#@#$#@ @#$#@#$#@ default 0.0 -0.2 0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1 1.0 0.0 0.2 0 1.0 0.0 link direction true 0 Line -7500403 true 150 150 90 180 Line -7500403 true 150 150 210 180 @#$#@#$#@ 0 @#$#@#$#@